An Insider Monkey comparison says Vistra offers the better risk-adjusted value at current prices: it trades at about 13 times forward earnings, versus 21 times for Constellation, whose US nuclear fleet is the country's largest.
Constellation reported second-quarter adjusted operating EPS of $2.55, raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $11.50–$12.50 and added about 920 megawatts of long-term power agreements. Vistra's second-quarter adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose 31% to $1.77 billion. It maintained 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8–$7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance of $3.93–$4.73 billion.
The analysis says Constellation's premium could be vulnerable if data-center contracts arrive more slowly, the Calpine integration disappoints or power-market enthusiasm cools; Vistra's lower multiple comes with greater commodity-market and hedging exposure. Peter Thiel's fund disclosed a $59 million Vistra stake while the stock traded below Constellation. Insider Monkey counted 111 hedge-fund holders of Vistra in Q2, up from 106, versus 73 Constellation holders, down from 79.
