Pipeline detours and a U.S.-guided corridor are keeping Gulf oil moving after Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts estimate about 8 million of 15 million barrels a day cut off have returned; oil is near $100 a barrel, but shipping costs have soared.
Rystad Energy’s Rahul Choudhary estimates 6–7 million barrels a day are passing through the southern route via Hormuz, plus about 2 million through the UAE pipeline to Fujairah. He says the remaining gap is being offset by inventory drawdowns of about 3.5 million barrels a day, demand down perhaps 5 million barrels a day, and 500,000–700,000 barrels a day from other suppliers. Choudhary described the market as tightly balanced; global stock drawdowns cannot continue indefinitely.
Six supertankers loaded 12 million barrels at Saudi terminals on the Persian Gulf on Monday, Kpler reported, after loading at Yanbu stopped Sept. 11. An attack earlier this month shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, potentially for weeks. Windward reported that spot charter rates for Hormuz transits reached $1 million a day on Sept. 11, compared with usual rates of $30,000–$50,000. Iran could still disrupt the corridor or target ship-to-ship transfer points off Oman; if that happens, transfers moved farther away would take longer and cost more.
