A base-case estimate projects the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.2% in 2027, easing to 5.9% by 2031, using Treasury-yield forecasts and an assumed spread. The article cites a 6.76% rate on Sept. 9 and warns that long-range projections are uncertain.
The base case puts the rate at 6.05% in 2028 and 5.95% in both 2029 and 2030. It uses Deloitte's 10-year Treasury yield forecast, which declines from 4.2% in 2027 to 4.0% from 2029, plus an assumed mortgage spread that narrows from 2.00 to 1.90 percentage points by 2031.
Anthropic's Claude AI also compiled alternative scenarios: its “bull” soft-landing case puts the 2031 mortgage rate near 5.05%, while its “bear” case of persistent inflation and fiscal pressure puts it at 6.90%, with rates above 7% in 2027–28. The article says Treasury yields, mortgage spreads and Federal Reserve policy could change the outlook.
