Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 45% in a simulated presidential runoff, according to a Datafolha poll, but the two-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error and counts as a technical tie.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people on September 22–23. In a first-round scenario, Lula had 40%, Bolsonaro 36%, Augusto Cury 5%, Ronaldo Caiado 4% and Renan Santos 3%. A candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff.
Two other polls released earlier in the week also showed a close race: Quaest put Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a potential runoff, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gave Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 45%.
