Danish intelligence says the risk of a limited Russian military attack on NATO countries bordering Russia is low but growing; an invasion is “highly unlikely” but cannot be ruled out. It expects more hybrid attacks, but not a conventional strike on Denmark.
DDIS said it expects Russia to intensify hybrid attacks. It said these have shifted from mainly creating fear and weakening public support for aid to Ukraine toward disrupting the delivery of that support, including through sabotage of defence companies or rail transports carrying military equipment. It also warned of destructive cyberattacks that could cripple critical societal functions. Separately, Denmark’s PET said earlier this month that Russian intelligence was recruiting ordinary Danes on social media to take photos that could help plan sabotage against the country’s defence industry.
The DDIS said the risk of a limited military attack would remain low even if the war in Ukraine continued. It said such an attack could be intended to divert European resources from Ukraine and might occur in the coming months, but building up forces would take several months and be difficult to conceal.
