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Cracker Barrel forecasts $180 million to $200 million in FY2027 adjusted EBITDA

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Motley Fool

Cracker Barrel’s Q4 adjusted EBITDA rose 11.4% year over year to $62.1 million, while comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1% and traffic declined 6.1%. For FY2027, it forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $180 million to $200 million and 3% to 5% comparable restaurant sales growth.

Fiscal 2027 guidance also projects total revenue of $3.325 billion to $3.4 billion, with no new stores planned. Cracker Barrel expects about 3% pricing, commodity inflation near 3% and hourly wage inflation of 2.5% to 3%; pricing is expected to be highest in Q1 and decline each quarter. Capital expenditures are forecast at $110 million to $125 million. CEO Dave Deno, about six weeks into the role at the time of the call, said the company would focus on food, guest experience and employees, including improving dinner offerings.

Q4 revenue totaled $849.3 million, including $698.5 million from restaurants and $150.8 million from retail. Comparable retail sales rose 0.7%, the segment’s strongest comparable-sales growth since Q2 FY2023. Adjusted EBITDA included a $15 million tariff-refund benefit, of which $5.9 million was reinvested, leaving a $9.1 million net benefit. It also included two offsetting $10 million legal settlements, one benefiting other operating expenses and the other increasing general and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA excludes CEO transition costs, Maple Street divestiture expenses and a sale-leaseback gain.

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