The Congressional Budget Office projects Social Security’s retirement trust fund will be depleted in 2032; without congressional action, benefits could fall 26%. Payroll-tax revenue would continue funding payments, so depletion would not mean benefits cease.
The CBO released its forecast Sept. 17. The 2026 trustees’ report also projected reserve depletion in 2032 but estimated a 22% cut; an earlier trustees estimate had benefits payable through 2033.
The funding gap reflects a falling worker-to-beneficiary ratio: 2.7 workers per beneficiary in 2024, down from 5.1 in 1960. The American Academy of Actuaries says the system could be balanced over 75 years with an immediate 3.65-percentage-point increase in the combined payroll-tax rate, to 16.05%, or an immediate 22.4% cut to benefits for current and future recipients.
