Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Sept. 21 he was wrong to expect Bitcoin’s cycle low still lay ahead after the cryptocurrency rose past $85,000 this week. On Sept. 4, he gave a 65% chance that the low was still to come, with some scenarios pointing as low as $44,000.
Bitcoin’s rally triggered more than $831 million in short liquidations in 24 hours, compared with about $130 million in long liquidations. In a YouTube video, Cowen noted that no previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle had produced an immediate Bitcoin selloff, undercutting a core part of his thesis; he said the burden of proof had shifted from bulls to bears.
Cowen’s thesis linked higher energy prices to rising yields, expected Fed rate hikes and a stronger dollar, which he believed would push Bitcoin lower. The rally also broke the midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018 and 2022 that had supported his outlook.
