Betting favorites went 5-1 in six AP Top 25 matchups; the higher-ranked team won three. Florida, Oregon and Mississippi State beat higher-ranked opponents and rose in the next poll, but one weekend cannot show which approach is better.
The AP Poll reflects voters’ assessment of teams’ accumulated body of work, while betting lines estimate likely performance in an upcoming game. Lines are market prices shaped by oddsmakers, models, injuries, location, matchups and betting activity—not computer models by themselves. The market also missed: Michigan was favored over Iowa, but Iowa won 20-19; Penn State and Louisville were favorites in other games and lost.
Neither the AP Poll nor betting lines selects College Football Playoff teams; the CFP committee uses its own process. Its criteria include strength of schedule, head-to-head results, common opponents and the availability of key players and coaches. The committee has access to predictive metrics, but the article describes its voting process as closer to the human-driven AP Poll.
